Startup Assumption Certainty Assessment

Welcome to the Startup Assumption Certainty Assessment. This survey helps you systematically evaluate your certainty across key startup assumptions—customer, problem, channel, and revenue—so you can prioritize your next validation experiments. It should take approximately 5–7 minutes. There are no right or wrong answers; we are interested in your honest assessment based on current evidence. Your responses are confidential and will be reported in aggregate only. Participation is entirely voluntary—you may stop at any time.

Which stage best describes your venture right now?

• Idea only
• Prototype (pre-MVP)
• Beta with users
• Launched (pre-revenue)
• Launched (generating revenue)

Based on your evidence from the last 60 days, how certain are you about who your primary customer is?

Based on your evidence from the last 60 days, how certain are you about the core problem your primary customer needs solved?

For the next 6 months, how certain are you about which acquisition channel will most effectively reach your primary customer?

For the first 12 months post-launch, how certain are you that your revenue model will generate sustainable income?

You rated your certainty across four key assumption areas. I'd like to understand what's behind those ratings. Let's start with the area where you feel least certain—what makes that assumption feel risky right now?

Rank the following assumption areas by how urgently they need validation (1 = most urgent).

1. Customer
2. Problem
3. Channel
4. Revenue

Based on your responses in this survey, please share any additional thoughts about your assumptions, uncertainties, or validation plans.

What is your current role?

• Founder / CEO
• Founder / CTO
• Founder / COO
• Founder (other)
• Non-founder leader
• Individual contributor
• Other

Thank you for completing the Assumption Certainty Assessment! Your responses will help you prioritize your next validation experiments. We wish you the best with your venture.

Which of the following evidence sources have informed your understanding of your primary customer in the last 60 days? (Select all that apply.)

• 5 or more customer interview summaries
• 1–4 customer interview summaries
• Pilot or paid proof of concept (POC)
• Waitlist or signups with segment data
• Web analytics indicating this segment
• CRM-qualified target accounts
• Internal team judgment only
• Other

How certain are you that you can reliably identify and reach individuals in this customer segment?

How certain are you that this problem is painful enough for customers to actively seek and pay for a solution?

For the next 6 months, how certain are you about your expected customer acquisition cost through this channel?

For the first 12 months post-launch, how certain are you about your expected unit economics (e.g., margins, lifetime value vs. acquisition cost)?

When do you plan to run your next key validation activity?

• Next 2 weeks
• Next 30 days
• Next 60 days
• Next 90 days
• Beyond 90 days

How many full-time team members are in your venture today?

• Just me
• 2–5
• 6–10
• 11–25
• 26–50
• 51–100
• 101+

Briefly describe the specific experiment or activity you will run next to reduce your biggest uncertainty.

How long have you been working on this venture?

• Less than 3 months
• 3–6 months
• 6–12 months
• 1–2 years
• More than 2 years

What industry or market are you primarily targeting?

• SaaS / Software
• E-commerce / Retail
• Fintech / Financial Services
• Healthcare / Biotech
• Education / EdTech
• Consumer Apps / Social
• Hardware / IoT
• Marketplace / Platform
• Professional Services / Consulting
• Climate / Sustainability
• Other

Where is your venture primarily based?

• North America
• Europe
• United Kingdom
• Asia-Pacific
• Latin America
• Middle East & Africa
• Other